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This is a re-post of a forum post on a private forum, source undisclosed.Revolutionary movements are based on the idea that there is a better way of doing things (a little simplistic but still true) and that this person or group "knows" the right way to do it and is convinced that there is no other way to get there except by overthrowing the current power structure and replacing it with their own.
The purpose of this piece is to take a look at how these groups typically operate, how and why they choose the targets that they do and the various roles inside the groups themselves and the organization of the group it self.
It may be obvious, but it does need to be stated that there is a great deal of variety in almost every aspect of these groups. What I am presenting here is just a generic view, a pattern that has been observed in a large number of them. Success or failure of the group rarely depends on any one thing or the other. Almost any set up can work or fail, depending on a huge variety of factors.
In order to defend against or to defeat a guerrilla group you must first recognize that one is operating in your area, you must know what its goal is, and you must be able to defeat it on at least on a physical level (short term victory) and to be able to prove to the majority of the people who have something (whether it is material or status is not really important) to lose that you are the one that is best able to serve their needs and ensure that they get to keep what they have or get what they want(long term victory).
Groups are typically set up around an individual or a small core group of individuals, this is the command group. Below them are the various people that serve in a few distinct categories, one will be the political or public arm. Next will be the action group then the supply/acquisition group there may also be a planning group--or this may be handled by the leader(s)-and there might also be a security group.
The leader group will compose the heart and soul of the group, they will be the ones that inspire and motivate the rest. This typically revolves around a very charismatic person or group of people who are able to rally people around some cause or set of causes. This will usually be the only thing that exist in the beginning and will handle most recruiting and every thing else until the movement starts to grow.
The action group is the one responsible for the execution of all goals, this will usually be the command group in the beginning but will typically grow into a separate group who focus's on this aspect of the movement and while they may help do other things, those other things will not be their primary focus.
The supply/logistics/support group is the one that gets all the things that everyone needs to operate; they also arrange for food/shelter and so forth. This is a vital group and many groups that fail. do so because this need is not given the time and attention it needs. They may also help acquire funds but not necessarily.
The political/public arm is usually only loosely associated with the rest of the movement. They are going to be the ones that are out there making the public case for the movement. They will have ties to the underground movement, but nothing that can put them in danger of getting them detained.
This is a very basic rundown of the structure of a typical group. It is vital to remember that there is a very large number of variations, and that often it is not that clearly organized and articulated. Also in small movements everyone may do everything. It is only when movements start growing do distinct "jobs" start emerging and often they are only recognizable has such from a outside perspective. One way or another all these "jobs" have to get done or the movement will not have any chance of success.
Identifying a group operating in your area.
The sooner you are able to do this the more effective you will be at countering them (or helping them, depending on your goals). There will be definitive signs that they are there. It is sometimes harder to see these signs in an area that has tight control on the media, and in that case you have to rely on word of mouth intelligence.
The basic pattern will be that there will be someone or a group talking about how bad the government or other powers that be are and how to they are able to do it better. We have all seen this, so I will not spend any real time explaining it-just enough to say that if there is not a political element, then if there is a guerrilla movement occurring either the issues are so obvious to everyone that it doesn't need stating or they are trying to be very clever and set up a situation where they can then come in and "save the day" so to speak. This is very rarely successful and often indicates that they have outside support. Governments around the world use this method to destabilize other governments. So, in order to detect such movements you have to know what the issues in your area are, or rather what the common person perceives them to be. Next find out who is saying that they have the "solution", this will usually be obvious unless you are in an extremely repressive country and then you will have to dig for it. Finally, you have to watch for things that reinforce what they (those that are saying they can fix it) are saying. So if the opposition claims that the government is repressive, look for the situation where the cops are cracking down more so than normal and try to find out what incident caused it. If it is a shortage-based issue (not enough food, money, jobs etc) then look into what is causing this issue. If it is food, where did the food go? If it is a labor issue, is there an effort to organize? Jobs-oriented, is there something that is happening to local businesses? Poverty oriented, where is the money going? Is something specifically happening, caused by an outside force, that is causing a larger than normal expenditure of funds by those in power?
If there is an active movement in your area there will be signs. You just have to look at what opposition leaders say the issue is, and then look at the issue. You will see what they are doing to it, if you look at it in this light.
There are three stages to a classic revolutionary movement
Phase 1-terrorist/underground: this is the beginning stage. The purpose will be to prove their point and in doing so collect a large enough following to advance the "cause".
Phase 2-This occurs when the movement has gathered enough support that they are able to step up operations and seriously start to undermine the powers that be. It will be characterized by things like a definitive structure to the group, a large number of followers, the seizing and control of actual territory and the start of process of the two arms to melding into one unified group.
Phase 3-This happens when the movement is large enough to actively, openly, and directly challenge the powers that be. It will be characterized by things like the open controlling of territory, the existence of a open militaristic group that can directly and openly challenge (and at least in the minds of the leaders) defeat the security apparatus of the government or existing leadership of the powers that be in the area. This may not exist in such a neat package. The forces available to the movement may or may not be trained. They may just be the general public of a certain area that will rise up against the government at the request of the movement or it may be a standing "army" that has been training defeat the armed forces of the government. For our purposes it doesn't matter. What matters is to be able to determine where the movement is in order to help determine what kind of actions it will take.
Phase one operations will revolve around the need to grow the movement. They will tend to be things that reinforce what the movement leaders are saying, so for example in the early days of the Palestinian liberation movement kids would throw rocks at the police/military and this would lead to an escalated enforcement of the existing patrols, a series of arrest and in general a higher level of repression. The political arm would then pronounce that they are excessively repressive. This may sound overly simplistic or that it would not work, that people will see through it. But the whole movement revolves around the belief that in the affected group that there is an issue to begin with. So if the local people already feel oppressed and then the police crack down on everyone because of the actions of a few individuals, this will be enough to push those individuals who are already close to joining into joining, and to make all the rest of the locals a little more favorably disposed to the movement, thus aiding them in acquiring money, supplies, silence, places to crash and so forth.
Each action will be designed to reinforce what the movement's public arm is saying. So if it is a labor movement, a group of workers will ask for a certain benefit or a raise or something-typically this will be something that they already know will be opposed. The demand for this will grow and the situation escalated in a way that is favorable to the movement, things like slowdowns, stoppages and eventually strikes will be pursued.
When trying to predict actions that they will take, think in terms of what will advance the movement's goals. Also remember that most governments and others in control are very insecure about their power base and cannot/will not allow any threat to its power to go unchallenged. This is why they react in the way that they do, and if they are smart enough to understand this, they will be smart enough to ensure that no movement has a real chance of success. Much like the situation that exist for us in the US, they have set up a system and a sense of entitlement that virtually ensures that people who advocate for a reduced footprint have virtually no chance of gaining enough support to successfully overthrow the existing power structure.
So if it is repression that is the rallying point, try to determine what will provoke a repressive reaction, look for things like groups of young people gathering, especially aggravating rules/laws. Think of things that on the outside look innocent and no big deal to the average person, but will be seen to be threat to the power and authority of the government. Just like a spray painted slogan that is say anti-fur, will draw a much greater reaction than a slogan that promotes a certain gang or other such graffiti will hardly draw any attention unless it is massive in scale or they are caught doing it. One is a perceived has a challenge to the status quo and the other just vandalism. Being able to identify the things that are likely to draw a reaction but that appear to be no big deal, these are the likely targets. If hunger is the issue, then shipments of food and warehouses and the like are likely target. The disruption of these allows the movement to claim things like weakness, inefficiency corruption and the like. This will serve once again to push people and resources into the movement. These actions must be successful in order for the movement to grow and have any chance of success; this will not however stop groups from acting. The success of actions or goals will often make groups desperate and act from that place; this often leads to tragic consequences to the movement and those involved in it. Often in today's world we see situations such has the Palestinian situation where they essentially go back and forth between phase one and two and see the rise and fall of many groups, but all with the same end. That, in addition to a variety of other factors, makes the situation a mess and no clear cut victory for anyone is possible and making target selection and prediction a matter of guess work on both sides. In that situation there are so many outside influences that it defies all possible definitions or rationality at this point. It is also vital to remember that the things that are done and said are targeted to people in the affected areas and may or may not seem sensible to outsiders.
The transition to phase two is not a clear cut thing. The idea behind this phase is start to directly challenge the state and to show that it can be done and further embolden and thus enlarge the movement. This phase will see a continuation of the previous types of actions, an increase in the political pressures, such has demands for an election or for them to step down and so forth. The thing that sets this phase apart from phase one is that the movement starts to target more directly those things that represent the state, such as military convoys, police stations and patrols, offices of businesses and politicians that support the government-and in general, more open and conspicuous actions. These actions will be presented with statements such has, "You leave us no other choice but to do this, for the good of the people and so forth."
Once again the primary purpose of this phase is to gain an every growing support base not only in money but in people and support. They will also serve to start to undermine the government's control, at least in the minds of the populace.
So in order to predict what will be targeted, you have to think like a leader of the movement-what could you attack that would offer a realistic chance of success, allow you to grow your movement and be able to promote your position without taking too many risks?
This is a very dangerous time, for they are growing and have been successful and the temptation is to push forward to hard is very real. Many of the types of actions during this stage risk exposing members of the movement who were previously unknown to the government. This is not an issue if they are successful. But if they are not, then you have effectively neutralized or removed one or more of their people, thus weakening their cause. Governments that have experienced and survived revolutions before have learned that it is often better to lull groups into a phase two status and overexpose them-drawing out as many members of the organization as possible for one clean sweep of all of them. This is risky because if it fails then it will give a huge boost to the movement and further the perception that it (the government) is incompetent.
The actions will start small. Each success and influx of support grows into more and larger actions. This will continue until the movement has gained enough of a following that they can directly challenge the local or higher levels of government and it is too large to effectively hide. There will also come a time when these type of actions (phase 1 & 2) will start to lose effectiveness.
Phase three: Once again the timing is not a hard and fast rule. Movements will start coming into the open. They will start to control areas and start to more directly challenge the powers that be. They will contest access to certain areas or deny resources to them. This will all be leading to a direct confrontation with the government with the end result being the victory of one side or the other. This phase may take the appearance of movements taking over cities or areas of land and training a standing army, or it may be that a group is able to mobilize enough of the populace in the city/state/country to overwhelm its security forces. This phase is very obvious, and it will not take much to figure out what is going to happen. Where does the government appear weak? What can the movement do to both hurt the government and increase its own momentum? There is a real danger of stalemate here-if the forces are too evenly matched and the movement is not able to continue to grow, then it can drag out in a seemingly never ending war of attrition with the only real losers being the populace that is stuck in the middle. Columbia is a prime example of this. It is a three-way war in which, with all the outside influences factored in, all three are pretty much evenly balanced thus ensuring a never-ending war.
This is a very generic overview of classic guerrilla warfare--the theoretical side of it, anyway. Now let's set up a pretend situation so we can start getting into the details of things like target selection, counter measures and the philosophy behind target selection. For in the end the success or failure of a movement will depend on growth and growth depends on target selection.
Okay let's get specific. For this, let's create a situation where we can start to get specific, at least in the beginning.
Let's pretend that we live in a country where we have very little to no freedom of speech, religion, expression and so on. There is no real judicial system; it is overall a very repressive government (I know this is too hard to imagine). The corporate interests are the only ones that get any kind of freedom (for a cut). The government essentially is the corporate world's muscle. They are also very greedy, resulting in a situation where many do not have enough to eat, poverty is rampant, and the situation is bleak for everyone not rich or in the "in crowd". (Once again, maybe to hard to believe, but bear with me here.)
Fresh out of college a group of five decides that things just do not have to be this way. That all that would be needed to fix the situation was well known and "obvious" to anyone who wanted to look. Take out the profit factor. Establish a rule of law that is independent of everything else. Stop making people pay to live-and all the rest. This group of close friends grew up together and knew each other extremely well. They were active politically through out college and have first-hand experience with the state's brutality. They know that the solution has been put forth many times and is a very well understood idea and one that the government represses discussion of severely.
So after a time they have come to the conclusion that the time is right to act. For the moment, all that they have is themselves, but the part of the town that they live in is not cooperative with the cops so they can expect a certain amount of privacy and discretion. (This is a lot of assumptions, but short of these or some similar set of conditions there is no real chance of success to begin with.)
So now is the time to act. In order to gain more support the five have to be able to do a couple of things. First they have to get their message out, and then they have to entice the government into acting in a way that will prove them right. Finally, they have to gather a following. So they start off by feeling out the people they know, trying to determine who would be willing to do what. First they need to decide who is going to do what. Who is going to be the public face and who is going to act? This is usually an obvious choice; there are usually those who are better at one than the other. Those who are going to act will need to go underground right before their first act. They will need places to sleep, food, money to buy stuff with, and all the other things that are required to live.
So they start off feeling out their friends and associates with the goal of seeing who would be willing, or unwilling, to do what. This has to very circumspect in the beginning. This will tell them where they can start. Some actions require more physical support and materials than others. Our five determine that they can have all the room and board that they need and maybe a bit of money, but anything more is going to require proof that this is doable. Most of their friends think that the government is too strong and will stop anything that they could do to change it. So they will have to prove this wrong.
With this, they will be able to plan their first actions. This will be the time that (if they are smart) the two arms will separate and do so in a verifiable manner, making it look they have split up, ending the friendship, had a falling out-that sort of thing. This is another sign to watch for. The apparent break-up of a group for no discernable reason is often used has a cover for this stage of operations.
Okay so at this point they know what resources they have available, they have their public arm safe-at least as safe as it can be. No contact would be made with this group by anyone they do not want official attention on. They will need to set up some system of communication, though-whether it is a dead drop, a symbol or whatever-it will be simple.
Now is the time to act. Repression is often the easiest thing to provoke. Those in government will not stand for any threat-real or perceived-to their power. They will, and almost always do, feel the need to "control the situation". This is usually done by increased surveillance, round up of the usual suspects, and more controls and limitations put on the general public at large-the more flagrant and public the threat, the worse the reaction. This can be easily done. It is not, however, a painless process, for many will suffer as a result of the provocation. A couple of people slipped into an otherwise peaceful protest, or some rocks being thrown at some of the police in a public place. The "Five" decide to make their move during an upcoming workers' rights demonstration. This would be the ideal sort of event, for this is one of the groups of people who are going to be most able to relate to their cause of the Five. They will be the most directly affected by the actions of the power structure and are the ones that have the most to gain from the movement.
So they slip a couple of them into the march and break some stuff and pelt the police with rocks, etc. The police will react and crowd control being what it is will do the rest for them. Word will spread, and those that are sympathetic to their cause will move closer and closer to them. Depending on the situation, they may have to do several small scale actions before seeing any real growth. But with each success they will gain in reputation and the state will lose.
They will generally consider it best to do an above-board operation that is followed by something out of the public's eyes. The actions would done be pretty close together so that the state's reaction takes place while the public is still upset about the other action. This kind of act can be something like burning a police car or ambushing a police patrol, or an assault on a politician or corporate bigwig or their residences.
The police will think that this is in retaliation or something at least related to the march and will step up its efforts to "control the situation" the only way that they have of doing this is through increased pressure and intimidation.
It is important for the Five to be creative thinkers in these situations. They must continually ask themselves what they could do to make the situation worse. They will be asking, "What would happen if we did this or that? What is the hardest thing for them to replace? What could hurt them the most? Where are they the weakest at? We must know our area: are there rail lines that are vital to the industry? How open are they? Are there roads that are used to import vital supplies? Are they easily disrupted? Where do the political/corporate bosses live?" Here they would use caution, for two reasons. One is that there may be political leaders who are sympathetic to their cause, whom they would treat well. Secondly, if they put the others in fear for their lives too early, then they may be able to draw in additional support from the state, support that the Five are not yet ready to deal with. They need to be much stronger before they are ready to take on the A team of just about any state's counterinsurgency forces. They want to make the state uncomfortable, but not so much so that the state thinks the locals cannot handle it. This is one of the things to watch out for. If there is an increase in apparent "vandalism" directed towards politicians or corporate leaders, this could be a sign of a budding guerrilla movement.
Interdiction will be a large part of what is done in the beginning. Logs across roads, railroad lines, cut power lines-in general, small easy, quick jobs that have little long term effect but do serve to disrupt the normal day to day activities. These will be the underground actions of the group, they will go hand in hand with the aboveboard actions. You are looking for a series of events that publicly show that the state is brutal but can be defied and actions that serve to disrupt day-to-day life. This is actually an important part. If they do not disrupt day-to-day life, inertia will keep many on the sidelines irregardless of how they feel about the cause.
So our group has disrupted a protest and provoked a clash with the cops. They had previously scouted out the main railroad lines into town and the local power plant. Both go through long stretches of forest that have nothing around them for quite a ways. It was decided in the weeks before the march that they would take the following series of actions: They would disrupt the march, then two days later they would fall a couple of trees across the rail line and then three days after that they would use some creative art work to liven up the house of the president of a local manufacturing plant. Four days after that they would cut three electric power line poles. This would be followed by at least two weeks of inactivity.
By this time they should have a good feel for how the authorities and the local populace react and thus be able to start doing more specific goal-oriented actions. On the other hand, they may not have gotten the attention of the cops yet, the cops could have simply attributed it to some local punks or something of the like and thus they will have to repeat this cycle until that perception changes, it is important for them to have a good read on the local cops, how quick do they react? In what force level? Do they frequently call on outside help? Are there private security forces around? Employed by whom? How tightly are they controlled?
So after the first series of actions some effort will be made to reach out to some local groups, be they criminal, activist or whatever. This will take the form of perhaps just establishing contact and a line of communication or perhaps a heads-up for possible opportunities for them. If there are groups around, particularly groups of younger people, there may be an effort to entice them into helping with the graffiti or other types of actions.
During the "off" times resources will be gathered and targets scouted out. This will be a crucial time for anyone who wants to stop the group. They will have to be aware of what kinds of things could be targeted and be on the lookout for people scouting out targets. This not an easy thing to spot, depending on the target. They could take pictures or just do a walk around, they could be obvious or just appear to be casual passersby. The only thing that you can really do is to be on the look out for things that seem to be getting a lot more attention than normal. You also need to start building up you network of information sources; this is true no matter what side you are on. People who are good sources are hardware clerks, delivery people, street vendors, taxi cab drivers, cops, homeless, petty criminals-anyone who is in contact with a lot of people on a regular basis. These will be the people that will see and know what you need to know. You must learn how to ask questions in a round about way, ask without appearing to be asking, how to make statements that will get the kind of response that you are looking for, an example would be "man, the cops sure are out in force today" the purpose of this would be to see if the number the cops pattern of activity is normal or not. You must appear to be casual, and you must not press it. This is what you need to be on the look out for has well. Who is asking and what do they want to know?
There is a certain way of thinking that successful planners have. When most people look around they just see what is and do not pay that much attention to how things work and the patterns of activity and so forth, most people are preoccupied with living and not so much into seeing the world around them in such a manner (rightly so, for this is not a normal or healthy perspective IMHO.) Good planners, though, see things in a systematic way. They see the individual parts that make up the whole rather than seeing the whole. This is a crucial thing for the planner to develop. Once this is acquired, they will start to see patterns of behavior. They will see and understand the flow of things. Everything else is technical details, things like learning what difference the size of an electrical power line makes and how rail lines are put together and all the rest of that sort of stuff. While this is an important aspect, if they do not understand how a system flows and the like, then all that knowledge will do them no good. The planner will ask: "What does the community produce? What kind of raw materials does it need and what do other communities need from it? Is it a producer of raw material or finished goods? How does it get the material that it needs? What is the location and type of power supply? How does it move its goods out? How do people get around? Where do the local powers that be live? How evenly distributed are the cops? Are they concentrated or disbursed? What type of communication does our area rely on-are cell phones the norm? Do the authorities rely on radios, or do they also use a system of landlines? Do they have regular patrol patterns or are they more loosely structured?" These are but a few of the questions that have to be asked and answered for the group to be able to successfully operate in any given place. Once they get used to this, they will start to see things as a part of the whole. They will better understand how things fit together and which parts are more important than others. Many of the things that they do will revolve around the local business/manufacturing side of the area. There will be a lot of actions that have the main purpose the making of day-to-day operation more difficult and, even more importantly, less profitable. So while a company may have the ability to reroute a supply line or replace a shipment or what ever, each time they do that it cuts into the profit. This will sooner rather than later be directly affecting the workers and will thus create an ever greater sense of resentment, for the leadership will typically bear a significantly smaller portion of the burden than that of the average worker. So what may seem to be an insignificant action, when looked at has part of a bigger pattern, is really very important. This is also something to be on the look out for. Very often, if there is not a lot of support for a change. These kinds of actions will be done in order to create the environment where a movement is able to operate. For the truth of the matter is that unless there is a certain amount of displeasure in a given populace no revolutionary movement will ever be able to successfully operate.
The previous questions are things that really should be asked and answered before the group starts operations. For they never know when/if they will be able to be seen in public without fear of apprehension. Their operations people must be prepared to stay out of sight and basically confined to a residence for extended periods of time.
One thing that can not be stressed enough is that they can never really tell what's going to pop up during an operation. Will somebody be walking the dog, or does X have unexpected guest that are just leaving-you name it. Investigators will be alert for anything that could possibly happen and could mean that people see things that could place a culprit at the scene or at least out and about.
One of the things that good investigators do is to try to get a lot of people to tell them apparently innocent things. But with enough of this "small talk" they can put together a picture of what happened. An example may be that a neighbor saw someone leaving your house, another person seen a car that matches yours and yet another person's dogs started barking right before "it" happened. Individually these things mean nothing, but all together the cops know that at such and such time someone left your house, then around this time a car matching your car's description was seen at this location and right before "it" happened something made someone's dogs bark near the scene of "it". This will be enough to get any number of things that require probable cause, such has warrants and bringing you in for questioning and so forth. Remember that in order for the status quo to win they don't have to arrest the members of the group-they just have to make it impossible for the group to act without being caught-if they cannot act, then they cannot win. Surveillance will do the trick. This is why it is SO important for members of the group not talk to the cops at all. They will know they cannot "trick" the cops. If they lie to the cops and the cops find out, they can and will try to use that as leverage to make the guerrillas tell them things that they do not want to. They will not put themselves into that position in the first place. They will just say they don't know, or don't remember. They will be polite, act like they want to help, but just don't know anything. The successful guerilla never says anything to anyone, and has internalized the need-to-know concept-if a person does not have a very serious need to know something, then they should not be told it, and those who do "need to know" should only be told what exactly they need to know and nothing else.
So during the "break" in action that our people take they will be planning the next series of actions. Several things will influence this and future decisions about what to do. They will ask, "What was the official response to our previous actions?" If none, then they will need to repeat similar actions until a response is provoked. Almost anything the authorities can do to "tighten" control will be disruptive, and this is what they want. For even if the officials are good enough at spinning and controlling the media, this disruption will serve to further upset the populace.
So for our example, the cops have put in place a temporary ban on protests and have stepped up "presence" actions in certain areas. They have also put out feelers digging for info on any new "groups" in the area.
The decision is made that they need to start focusing on the labor side of things. So the next series of events will be something like more interdiction of the rail lines, random disruption of various bridges, and the beginnings of a harassment campaign against the local "pro business" leaders. This will be combined with very covert actions that have as their end result an increase in cost of living for the average Joe. For example, the road interdictions will disrupt supply. Costs to corporations are increased by the random downing of electrical power lines, the burning of phone exchange buildings, the possible disruption of natural gas lines, or the corruption of gasoline storage tanks. They decide to keep it simple and increase the rates of power outages and rail and road interdictions. This will be accompanied by increasingly forceful demands from labor leaders for more pay/better conditions and so on. These demands will not be met and will be issued in a slowly increasing rate. So in the beginning they may have been done once or twice a year, by the end of the third or fourth month of actions they should be up to a rate of about once a month. The goal is to put management in a position where they are not able to effectively deflect the demands. They will either have to start making concessions (which the group's other activities will make very unlikely, since all of them directly cut into the profit margins already) or do simply deny them using the standard excuses, which will provide all sorts of ammunition for the leaders of the public relations arm of the movement.
This level and type of actions will be continued until the officials start feeling the need to be continually vigilant-in other words, until they start actively and constantly guarding vital places and things. This will be the sign that the guerrillas are looking for, the one that will tell them that they are starting to have a direct and no longer minor effect on business and the state. This is when the labor movements start giving management timelines. They will also start talking about things like slowdowns, walkouts, and strikes-just thinly veiled threats or references to them. The idea is to get management thinking of the possibility of those actions and what the effects of them will have on the bottom line. You want them to start to feel the pressure, to start to think about these kinds of things in a regular and consistent manner.
This will be the time that the operations people really start to take actions that will directly effect the local economy. The sabotaging of gas storage containers, the destruction of tractor trailers, anything that while still being a small target will have a more direct effect on the local economy.
They will also need to start scouting out major targets and start the process of getting the items needed for the execution of a major event.
Good targets for them to choose at this time would be warehouses that are full of commercial goods, actually burning the houses of local leaders. Are there bridges that can be taken out easily, or at least major damaged?
Many of the newer movements at this stage will start a series of either bank robberies, hijacking trucks, and that sort of thing. There have not been enough of them to make a definitive statement on the effectiveness of them. So I will list some of the pros and cons-from the guerilla group's perspective-associated with them.
Pros-
They directly effect the daily operation of business in the local area.
They provide much needed funds and sometimes goods.
They show the vulnerability of the powers that be.
Cons-
These actions can easily be spun as purely criminal and put a negative image on their movement.
It is easy to set up traps around these targets, so the risk of being caught really goes up.
There are real risks of death and personal injury in these kinds of ops and so these risks will become an ever greater fact of life. If the movement is still small, they may not be able to afford to lose anyone yet.
These are the major things that I am aware of, I am sure that there are more that I have forgotten or not read about. Kidnapping campaigns are also typical but they are highly dangerous, resource intensive operations that have a very low success rate in places that have an intact judicial system. The only places where they have a high rate of success are those places like Columbia where the various factions control large parts of the country and have extensive networks and resources.
I think this tactic would be seriously considered if money and supplies were hard to get. If that was not an issue, then I do not think it would be considered worth the risk at this point in the movement.
This is one of those points where it is almost impossible to be specific in an example. A movement will continue these kind of actions building up momentum until the time is right to sort of push the powers that be over the edge, to use the momentum and the cumulative result of their actions to start the process of seriously undermining the real power of the government. The point of the actions that they have taken to this point was to hinder the system and to grow their base. The amount of success at this determines when and if really you move on to actions that are more than hindrances.
Another way to look at this would be reserve depletion. What the guerillas are doing in essence is forcing the powers both economic and government (in so much has there is a difference), to use up all the reserves or savings that they have, to put them in the position where they have nothing to cover any losses. This means that every loss comes straight out of the bottom line and cuts into operations. With the government, it means that they no longer have the ability to do as many things that need doing. There are too many targets to guard or too many guaranteed accounts to cover, or too many roads to fix or whatever the "it" is, the resources simply do not exist to handle it. Now it is true that at this level and time the movement is still probably still local. But in order to grow so that this same process can be carried out nationwide, they first must be effective on the local level.
A couple of things happen as they push closer and closer to that point. First is that the security forces really start cracking down in an overt and blatant way. They simply can not allow this kind of challenge to go unanswered. They must respond for you will be attacking their very bloodline. Next is that more and more of the cost is passed down the line, this will have a very serious effect on those people who live in the lower rungs of society. The working poor will almost immediately find life far more difficult to live, and they are also the ones that will be the mass that is making the demands on management. This will act to spur them on and give them greater incentive to push those demands, also setting up a situation where managements refusal to meet those demands will be seen as taking food out of their kids mouths, making the refusals a direct attack on their well-being and livelihood. This perception will be aided by other factors as well-as things tighten up many jobs and positions will be deemed unnecessary and eliminated, further angering the people. When companies start to do this the mood in those places quickly becomes one of "us vs. them", and everyone starts to wonder when they are next.
All of these things will push more and more people into the movement either directly or just as supporters.
Okay, fast forward to that time when they have been successful in stretching their local powers that be to the breaking point. It is now time for phase two. One of the things that will happen here is that they will start the process of expanding the organization-they will need to take it national at some point in time. Things get weird now, for the group may not have the support or ability to expand into more than, say, one city at a time, and may have to start from scratch in some places. They will also, if they haven't already, start drawing the attention of the feds, this will be the A team of the governments enforcers. They should by this time have a lot of experience in things like covert movement, hiding, supply acquisition and so forth. They will need that experience for they will also be very experienced and will have vastly greater resources and the ability to operate in the open. Now the fun really begins. Many groups fall at this point because they have not built secure communication systems, or secure supply situations or good operational tactics and so forth. If any of these areas have been neglected by the group, then they will be exploited against them.
So there may be a time when there are phase two type operations in one area and phase one in another, this cuts both ways, it can confuse either or both of them.
So they are expanding the area of operations and have pushed the locals to the point of either breaking or forced to being propped up by the feds. Now is the time to move to phase two style operations.
The primary difference between phase one and two is the size and scope of the targets. They are looking to both directly undermine the powers that be and to start the process of actually taking out the assets of the enemy.
Some examples of the change in targeting would be that, say, with railroad interdictions they would plan them so that the trains actually derail and wreck. They also look at starting to take out the locomotive units.
They start looking at bridges. Burning warehouses in large numbers, arson in general will be a big part of the group's operational bag. They will make a concentrated effort to attack things like police stations, patrols, military convoys. Communication lines will also be a big target. Cutting fiber optic cables, burning switching stations, destroying or ambushing the phone companies' repair trucks/crews. As always they will be looking to maximize the effectiveness of their actions. So does a major line run over a river or canyon, prime target? Can you hit a headquarters of either the police or some other political or corporate body? Mayors and city leaders also become targets at this stage. Over all what they will be doing is to weaken the existing system and more importantly to show the public at large its vulnerability. So when trying to predict targets, ask questions like what are easy targets yet ones that would make a big impact on your community.
This will be a time when operations scale up; they must start hitting bigger and bigger targets they must show that they are capable of opposing and overthrowing the existing government. So what may start has an isolated attack on trucks and individual police cars will grow into regular hijackings along certain stretches of road and frequent bombings of police stations. What may start with defacing of political/community/corporate leaders' houses may end up with assassinations of the same.
One key characteristic of this stage is exponential growth. The next stage is one of direct confrontation, so the movement must grow a lot at this stage. This will be the time when people are being forced to take a side. As the movement grows and gains momentum, the rate, kind, and tempo of operations will likewise increase, until the point is reached where they are either unable to stay hidden or are in fact in control of actual areas. There is often a time when they are unable to stay hidden but not yet able to control land, this is typically when they move the center of operations to either the country or to isolated locations. This allows semi-open operations.
Once again, you can not really put a timeline on this stage, except for the transition part of it.
There will come a time when the movement will have the numbers and support to do one of two things, either start to control areas of land and use them as training bases, or, as has been the case in recent years, control enough of the populace in the major cities to rise up and overthrow the security forces of those countries. This is called phase three and is the final phase. I will not go into it here, for it is all about military strategy and that is not the purpose of this paper.
Over all, the key to determining what will be targeted will be determined by what phase the movement is in and what will accomplish the most for the movement without compromising it. The guerrillas will need to pay attention to what is going on and look at their area in an analytical way-what are the structures that exist, what do they require to function, where are they weak, where are the bottlenecks? What would hurt the most if it was taken out? Is there an active labor movement? What groups exist in their area? Are there serious ethnical conflicts or tension? Does something happen to suddenly start to increase the existing tensions in your area?
They must have a good grasp on the pulse on their community and what is going on in it. Who are the most unhappy ones and why? They will watch for either sudden or slow changes that change this dynamic. Revolutionary movements cannot stay hidden; they must act and those actions will be visible. In today's world it may be that the powers that be do not want these actions known. So you will have to dig, was there a power outage? Why? Did a march turn into a riot, what caused that? Is there a shortage of some goods? Why? Having a good network of eyes and ears is truly invaluable; in fact the special forces community has spent a lot of effort in creating teams in likely trouble spots whose sole purpose is to set up an intelligence network, to give them some real time, real world intelligence in case it is needed. You cannot underestimate the value of this kind of knowledge. It can and is often the difference between success and failure.